Long-term job outlooks help us understand what the job market might look like in the future. They show if there will be too many or not enough jobs in certain fields over the next 10 years. This information helps people plan their careers and helps employers plan for changes in the job market. It gives a clear picture of how jobs are expected to change, so people can prepare for new opportunities or challenges.
This page provides a summary of Employment and Service Development Canada’s (ESDC) Canadian Occupational Projection System (COPS) outlooks for the 2024-2033 period. For more details on the methodology visit COPS.
Definitions
Shortage Conditions: a situation where there are more jobs available in an occupation than the supply of qualified and willing workers.
Surplus Conditions: a situation where there are more workers looking for jobs than there are jobs available.
Supply and Demand Summary:
Job openings (new labour demand): Between 2024 and 2033, there are expected to be 8.1 million job openings from the following sources:
This means that most of the job openings (68.1%) will be to replace workers who retire.
Out of all these job openings, three-quarters will be in jobs that need education beyond high school or in management.
Job seekers (new labour supply): As for job seekers, about 8.5 million people will join the job market. Most of these people will come from:
In addition, around 180,000 people who were not working will leave the job market.
This shows that more people will be looking for jobs than there will be jobs available, with school leavers being the main source of job seekers.
2024-2033 projection - Future conditions
Over 100 occupations are expected to have a moderate or strong risk of facing shortage conditions over the projection period:
- Many of these jobs were already facing shortages between 2021 and 2023. For example, registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses will still likely face shortages during this time.
- 10 out of 109 jobs that were facing shortages between 2021 and 2023 are expected to have more balanced job markets in the future. For example, food service supervisors, which had some shortages after the pandemic, should see more balance between job openings and job seekers by 2024-2033.
- Four new jobs are expected to have a shortage risk, where there will be more job openings than job seekers. For example, home building and renovation managers, which were okay between 2021 and 2023, are now expected to face shortages in the coming years.
- Most of the jobs with shortage risks will be in health, natural sciences, construction, and transportation.
- Finally, 17 jobs are expected to have too many workers, mainly in fields like art, culture, recreation, and sports.
Occupations at risk of shortage conditions
A situation where there are more jobs available in an occupation than the supply of qualified and willing workers.
Occupations at risk of surplus conditions
A situation where there are more workers looking for jobs than there are jobs available.
Source: ESDC 2024 COPS Projections